Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  November 7, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

12:00 pm
>> we're definitely going to do that. thanks a lot, herb greenberg. a major selloff on the street. michelle is going to take over in the "halftime report." >> welcome, i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. should you be trusting your portfolio prepping your portfolio for a drop off the fiscal cliff? the bear mark can ket territory, you just heard herb greenberg, falling out of the tree with a 20% correction. our trader also tell you should you be buying the dip? first, though, we have to hit a huge selloff. four hours to go until the close. the dow having the biggest drop in nearly a year lower by 2%.
12:01 pm
dow below 13,000, by the way. s&p down 33 points, a decline of more than 2%. and nasdaq composite lower by 70 points, also getting hit very hard. here's the heat map for the sectors in the s&p 500. they are all in the red. financials, energy, and industrials along with consumer staples not doing as well either leading the decliners. cnbc's proprietary indices that benefit from romney or obama win show the romney index down by more than 4%, 4.5%. look at this. the obama index. in this day, a massive selloff, it is higher. investors seem surprised by the and two months ago. >> a romney victory would have had 100 points in the s&p and
12:02 pm
probably a 15-point decline. >> wow. leon cooperman, is that a good prediction? is the presidency the reason we're dropping? let's bring in joe terranova, josh brown to find out. gentlemen, at least that's what i presume you are, is this really an obama selloff or is this the market rally and what is the reason now? >> what the reason is, what the outcome is going to be, really? it doesn't matter. what should matter is what should have happened today. this company is deficient in commonsense at some point this morning the speaker of the house, the president should have walked into a room and said the fiscal cliff that everyone is worried about, we're going to get it done, walk out of the room if they did that, the s&p is unchanged on the day.
12:03 pm
>> you have so much hope and cynicism. >> after august 2001, we should have learned the lesson and had commonsense. obviously we don't. >> mr. najarian, what is driving the selloff today? >> well, i think what we're seeing is a combination of everything above. it's a combination of germany, obviously that hangover that you're seeing from europe and from the election itself. because of the fact that so many are banking on, what are the i am areas that reacted most when romney did so well in the early debates, specifically. it was the coals, financials. we had a nice big run in the market. once that -- the election results were in, we could see where the biggest selling is right now. it's in the financials. it's in the coals. it's in a variety of the energy sectors as well. am i surprised? i am surprised. i think it would have extended like leon cooperman was talking about.
12:04 pm
i think you have to look for opportunities. i don't necessarily think that you have to jump today. but there are opportunities where things are being sold off far too much. >> you see opportunities here or were you surprised? >> no, we weren't surprised. we took exposure off expecting a little bit more of a rally going into the presidential election than we thought. but we didn't think it would be able to stick and all of the points are playing into this. keep in mind, the euro u.s. dollar crosses hugely influential on u.s. stock prices. it has been for a long time and the news we heard out of germany was pretty bad and now you combine that with the fact that we're through this last earning season. and now we're going to plunge into this fiscal cliff stuff and i don't think that anyone believes it's going to be an easy compromise, even the people who think we're going to see a compromise are expecting a run of negative headlines that hits the tape day after day. that's kind of what is going on here. the game is in the obama index and is probably not going to last because selling like this tends to take down everyone in
12:05 pm
the end. >> but it's telling that that's the only area of the market that appears to be positive today, right? >> i agree. >> and what's the message of the markets today, in your opinion? >> i think that this is a focus shift. this is basically saying, look, we had a lot of tough government budget problems, tough business investor problems that we put off until after the elections and said we have some certainty and we can readdress those. guess what, those problems are still here. this is business investment planning that has been delayed and all of a sudden looks at an earnings growth and gdp growth scenario that doesn't look too rosie. >> you look at the income space and this continues to be a bond friendly environment. we said on monday president obama is the bond market's best friend. i think you look today at corporate bonds, you look at municipal bonds and they will continue to be favored. >> because the economy will remain weak or because he has bernanke in place?
12:06 pm
>> because you have modest, tepid growth on other side at 2% at best. goldman sachs took their q4 back down on the back of hurricane sandy. it's not going to accelerate any time soon in the upcoming quarters. corporate balance sheets still look good. that favors municipal bonds, also. >> lots of movers today responding to president obama's re-election. bertha coombs is at the market flash keeping an eye on -- >> fretreasuries. this part of fixed income, you can see the risk off day, treasury yields are much lower today. we saw a move into the close with a bit of risk on. you saw some selling today and we are lower. just at this hour, moodys reiterates that a downgrade is possible if the deficit is not addressed. it's looking ahead to the deficit talks and the fiscal cliff. >> josh brown, what do you
12:07 pm
think? >> i think what you want to do today, if you haven't already, look at your lower conviction holdings and ask yourself, are they really worth holding through this fiscal cliff driven a period of time. >> you're talking about stocks, not bonds? >> yeah. with bonds, i don't see any huge opportunity to jump into treasuries specifically if you're holding period is shorter term. stick with cash. there are going to be good entries for equities and over the medium term i think that is where you prefer to be. >> joe, you just said that president obama is a bond market's best friend. does that mean that you can still buy treasuries here? >> the market is obviously telling you that. you're going to see a selloff above 2%. you've seen 1.63% this morning. given the economic condition and what is going on in germany, i disagree with josh. >> two morn points that i make on stocks, this is not a macro market. so it's going to add less value when the index is moving around 30 points.
12:08 pm
and, second, the vix is still below 19 today on one of the largest moves of the year. i think if you're looking to buy protection you should be focused on this put off market instead of selling your stocks. >> good insight. as markets sell off, where should you be going to protect your money? let's bring in one of the top strategists tom lee. what do you think now in the wake of the last 24 hours? >> i think the market is really telling us it was a lot more disapr disapril pointed than we realized with an obama re-election. >> i want to address -- i want everybody to look at the bottom of the screen. moodys has said that they will decide on the u.s. credit rating after the outcome of budget negotiations. that's presumed that we'll actually have some. tom, what do you think when you
12:09 pm
hear that headline? >> well, i think to last year and this whole debacle that happened last year and one thing that is happening last year that is not happening this year is corporate bonds were selling off. we really knew stocks were going to take a wallop because of high yield spreads, high spreads were widening. today if you looked at the corporate bond market, they are not expressing concerns about the fiscal cliff. to me, i'm wondering if those markets are about to take a hit soon or if the fiscal cliff is not really the reason that stocks are selling off today. >> for the folks listening on the radio, another headline is, even if we go over the fiscal cliff, moodys is saying that doesn't necessarily immediately lead to a downgrade. that means that they are waiting to hear what is the long term whom did i interrupt? >> i have a question for tom. your thesis on the cyclical stocks for good reason have been
12:10 pm
fairly underloved. is that because there's too much pessimism or do you actually see an earnings rebound happening in the next two quarters? >> i think it's both. when investors think of another four years of democratic white house, they are going to believe that global growth is better. i think cyclicals look more attractive. and as we've been trading at historic discounts. another thing that is a tailwind in the u.s., a foundation for a durable goods recovery is taking place. u.s. housing stats are really taking up. and next year i think that's going to be adding to s&p earnings growth. remember, every 250,000 starts is about a $4 lift to s&p earnings and we think it's going to drift back to that level in a couple of years. and if we look at global
12:11 pm
manufacturing data and if we look at the last two quarters of earnings growth, significantly from multinationals specifically. >> they have been raising a lot of cash, and they have been lick k liquidating inventory. the u.s. economy was showing better growth recently and, remember, another tailwind that is coming now is gasoline is 40 cents from its high. >> tom? >> that's $15 billion a tailwind. >> you had if romney would win, before the outcome, small caps would win and are they now selloffs? >> i think the market is telling
12:12 pm
us they are not as attractive. but we have to disassociate ourselves with what the mark can ket market issi doing today a week from now and i think a week from now we're going to see gasoline that has dropped a lot, corporate credit is still trading great. stocks are really cheap and there's all this corporate cash laying around. it's either going to be used as dividends, m and a, buybacks, and investor positioning, even if they were cautious before, they are cautious today. they are not interested in investing in the market. that's bullish for stocks. >> it sounds like you're telling folks, if you're in the market, hang in there. if you're not fully vested,
12:13 pm
you've got an s&p price target of 1430. >> yes. >> that's not so far from where we are now. why take the risk? is it worth it to take the risk for such limited upside? >> that's a good question. one, i think that there is still upside to the 1430 and to year end. once we get some clarity on the fiscal cliff. you know, i think embedded in our view is the idea that we're not going to be falling off a fiscal cliff. that we're going to find some compromise. again, i'd just say that the corporate credit market is not showing as much distress about this as the equity markets are. >> i like that optimism, tom. i'll send you this pin that says, rise above. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> i meant financials and energy. i didn't mean to throw coal at you. >> got it. okay. let's check back with bertha. >> speaking of coal, that was actually a big part of that cnbc
12:14 pm
romney portfolio. they gained about 12% on average for the sector during his run, following his mentioning coal and his good performance in that first debate but, boy, they are getting hit hard today. alpha natural, peabody, they are off double percentages as they come off of the lows. michelle? >> let's trade this. does anybody see opportunity in these poll stocks today think this is overdone? >> i do. >> i don't like the stat. i mentioned that as a rally in a bear market yesterday when there was positi was positivity. the one that i would look at is wood-related or timber-related. i think sandy has helped as home building. look at wood and cut. >> pete najarian, i believe you answered my question in the affirmative.
12:15 pm
you would step into coal here? >> disagree with josh. i like the coal names, specifically the ones that have exposure with the asian markets. i actually jumped into cliffs today. today was the opportunity, i think. i'm not necessarily calling a bottom. i think there could be selling pressure. of course there could be. the exposure they got to the asian markets, i think we are seeing the chinese markets trading better each day. australia did not lower the rates. there's a lot of reasons that the global economy outside of europe is looking better and i think the names exposed to those areas could do very well. >> all right, pete. thanks very much. apple shares drifting into bear market territory, falling pretty sharply. down 20% from the all-time highs. we're going to get to the core of what is driving the stock lower. what is a fast money without some kind of apple? plus, is the fear trade back on? what exact tea in the golden crude oil market is suggesting to traders?
12:16 pm
what you should know before you invest. and why president obama is making good for hospital stocks. we're going to get the picks for the next four years. the most vulnerable for the fiscal cliff. we'll be right back. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank, like no-fee atms, all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture.
12:17 pm
free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy, while protecting our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today.
12:18 pm
12:19 pm
apple a huge part of today's selloff. the market in brief market selloff. here with me, doesn't have further to fall. >> and you are wearing red. doesn't have further to fall. apple has been a name that i've been out of the expectation and what happens in january. however, technically now, we're getting back to the levels between 530 and 555 where there is going to be a lot of pent-up
12:20 pm
demand based on the report. and the answer to your question, i expected to buy apple in january but given the fall right now it's very appealing to me over the next couple of days i will rebuild a position in apple. >> mr. najarian, what are you seeing with regard to options? >> they have been going crazy for a while now. it's been a significant drop as you guys were putting up on the screens right now. certainly a lot of activity, the volatility, talk about the market volatility earlier. trading somewhere near 19, you're being looking at apple's volatility participating very strongly in the explosion to the upside. so a lot of people are trying to bet on both sides of this right now. >> the director of research darren joins us on the fast line. darren, it's the biggest holding
12:21 pm
in the fund. 7%. how are you feeling today? >> it's not a pleasant experience but we've been through situations like this with apple plenty of times in the past. they took about an 18% drop earli earli earlier in the spring. we have sold the position all the way up. we have owned it for a long time and every sale has been a long one. clearly it was broken and i don't think you see much support to 530 but we're fund mentally driven for the most part. >> would you buy more there? it gets to 530. >> at 7% of the fund, it's already too large of a position we have some restrictions on how big it could be.
12:22 pm
and apple taking the $100 plus billion that is being managed in a hedge fund somewhere and considering a buyback or are they just going to stick with the dividend that they have announced and let the market do what it will with the share price? >> that's a good question. clearly they have the resources and i think it would be a great -- look, it's trading less than ten times next year's earning and for a company as strongly positioned as apple is, growing 20% next year, assuming the macro situation does not deteriorate, i think it would be a good use of cash. normally i'd like to update the stock purchase designificant. i'd rather see more of the dividend-type investment. but, yeah, at this level i wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see some news front on that front.
12:23 pm
>> all right. we'll be watching for that as well, darren. thank you so much. we'll be talking to jeff donedunlap who called the trough in natural gas. he's made a lot of big call and we're going to ask him what he thinks about apple and that will be roughly at 10:30. >> committee tell josh when he might get the power back? >> he might. he's that good. and we're going to get to the root of the gold and oil market. and what happens if a fiscal cliff deal does not get done? half time report starts right after this. 's tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong.
12:24 pm
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i'm in total control because i can trade tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i use their global research to get an edge. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rates specific foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i also have access to independent tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 firms like ned davis research tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and economist intelligence unit.
12:25 pm
tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 plus, i can talk to their global specialists 24/7. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and trade in my global account commission-free tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 through march 2013. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 best part... no jet lag. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-790-3801 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and a global specialist tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 will help you get ted today.
12:26 pm
. kmom teas have seen a sharp selloff. let's welcome dennis gartman. always good to have you on. we saw gold move initially and now it's gone flat. what is that telling us in that
12:27 pm
there's fear of gridlock in the fiscal cliff? >> i think gold rallied last night just as the euro started to leak and gold started to go up it got a bid earlier this morning because of the concern about the european economy. but, michelle, i have to tell you, i think there is forced liquidation going on. with stocks down 300 points, i've been through this too many times before. the margin clerks look to see whether there is liquidity and there are still a lot of people who are long the gold market. >> so you're still a winner? >> that's what is going on. >> oil is getting hammered today as well. what is that telling us? is this a risk off all day? >> i think it's fear that the economy is slowing down. the oil market tried to rally. it couldn't. why it rallied yesterday is really quite beyond me. all we're doing is taking back all that we have gained. what is important for people to understand is that even on
12:28 pm
rallies you're seeing what i call a term structure. continuously give you bear rich implications. the wti continues to widen, the brent continues to narrow. there's an abundance of crude. it's going to continue to do so, i'm afraid. there's a lot of crude being found, a lot of crude being discovered and now we have to think that the economy is being week. >> dennis, live pictures coming out of athens. you'll be shocked to hear that they are rioting in greece. an austerity vote is to happen in greece. it's expected to pass. tell me, there were times when images like this, teargas, riot police that we would see the dow move as much as 500 points. >> it no longer seems to have
12:29 pm
the leverage that does t does. does it still move the euro? >> the euro is going to get hit through the rest of the day on these kinds of pictures and you have to believe that when american investors see these sorts of pictures, what is the propensity to buy stocks? i expect it will be instead to reduce their positions, to reduce exposure that they have. this cannot be construed as being beneficial. >> no, absolutely not. there's just a lot going on there on the ground. i am surprised that they have allowed the protesters to stay as late in the square as they have and that's probably why we sue so much teargas. thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thank you, michelle. cheers. >> we have a read on the action in the trading pits. the host of "future's now" has the latest. >> good afternoon, michelle. the pits are clear. sell. comments from e consider cb president mario draghi suggesting that europe's debt
12:30 pm
totals are taking a toll and how do you play it in the lower gas prices just around the corner? let's talk futures now. be a th anthony is at the nim mymex in york. >> we expected crude oil to be lower because we expected a bill because of what happened in the refineries in sandy. we got that. this is a broader base selloff and there's a lot of head winds for fiscal cliff, higher regulation coming down. and there is a lot of crude oil. that's the bottom line. so i expect this to go lower from here. >> rich, let's bring you in here. what levels are you watching? >> well, i was watching this last night when i was ahead. watching the election, i took a little chart out and drew a line across a couple of bottoms and i put out the sell recommendation
12:31 pm
on the twitter. for me that was a good level to come short against. the market starts to pull back. if we close below the magic line of 8450, i think we press lower. i've been talking about this for the last couple of months. i think oil coming into this last quarter is going to give us an $80 or below price. there i want to start getting long. certainly the bears have the market and control right here. >> okay. so we're bearish on crude. 8450 is the number to watch. any relief at the pump? >> yes. i think you're definitely going to see that. there was a 500,000 barrel a day drop in demand for gasoline. a lot of it. but not all of it. let's see if this carries over to next week. i think you're going to see some relief at the pump. >> what about you, do you think that crude has had it higher, lower, logon? vote in our poll. we're going to give you those results on our website. also, be sure to catch futures
12:32 pm
now streaming online live every tuesday and thursday at 1:00 p.m. >> are you related to bobby b.? >> no. >> all right. thank you, jackie. let's take another look at what is happening in greece, how markets are reacting. the s&p and euro and treasuries as well. joe terranova, here we go again. what do you think of the pictures? >> i think we've seen the pictures before. the only thing missing is the red laser pointers. >> they were green but -- >> they were green? >> yeah. >> okay. you wearing red is making me think of the red. but let's go back to oil. the commodity index funds will significantly reduce the wti.
12:33 pm
they will increase the brent and natural gas but be very careful looking at the price of oil and making investments for the remainder of the year based on the fact that -- >> what joe said on oil, if you look at the qe 3 rallies that we had in commodities, stocks, asset class as a whole, oil was absolutely anemic. it really couldn't go higher on the liquidity injection and when something can't go higher, it's probably going lower. oil is an asset that leads on the downside. >> thank you so much. let's show you those pictures if we can. there's an austerity vote happening later in greece. when "half time" returns, we'll have more on the selloff. jeff gundlach will be with us to talk about his call on apple. and the change in power in china, how it can impact your investments right here in the united states. it's a real risk many aren't
12:34 pm
talking about. those stories and more when we return on the "half timereport." [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. plus get up to $600
12:35 pm
one is for a clean, wedomestic energy future that puts us in control. our abundant natural gas is already saving us money, producing cleaner electricity, putting us to work here in america and supporting wind and solar. though all energy development comes with some risk, we're committed to safely and responsibly producing natural gas. it's not a dream. america's natural gas... putting us in control of our energy future, now. is an awesome place to be. introducing the all-new 2013 chevrolet malibu eco. ♪ sophisticated new styling, the fuel-saving intelligence of eassist, 37 mpg highway, and up to 580 highway miles on a single tank of gas. ♪ the all-new 2013 chevrolet malibu eco. ♪ it has everything to put you in the malibu state of mind no matter what state you live in. ♪
12:36 pm
12:37 pm
welcome back to "fast money halftime report." we have hmos that have returned to facing more regulation even in the medicaid space they are likely to take up a lot more business if obama care does move forward. take a look at hospitals. hospitals were under pressure. today they are rallying because they do face better reimbursement but the interesting thing is, they do face a big problem if we do end up having to have those cuts because of the fiscal cliff. >> yeah. but good point, bertha. thanks so much.
12:38 pm
let's see what you think about hmos and hospitals. >> i like the hospitals. and i'll tell you why. my brother is a doctor and he's documented this trend for me for a few years. you've seen independent doctor offices lose business to the hospitals as reimbursements have shifted that he is going to accelerate that trend. even though as bertha said, hospitals might get hit if overall spending decreases, they are going to begin market share as a whole. >> so a secular shift there. >> let's welcome jeff gundlach who is joining us on the phone. good call. you're still sticking with 400s? >> yes, about 425. i started shorting and made its
12:39 pm
way to 700 and now it's in the lower half of that range. it just seems to me that apple -- when i was speaking with gary kaminsky back in september, it's an over-believed stock. every meeting i have, everybody owns it and the product innovators, as i said before, isn't there anymore. i'm struck by this mini ipad thing. i think you're not innovative and that would be some sort of innovation and it starts to get really powerful vertical at about 425 and i really think that when stocks go vertical and i get tired and peak out, it goes back to the point at which it goes vertical. i think what is happening today with the obama win, i think a lost people are starting to
12:40 pm
realize that maybe as we talked about back in april the capital gains tax increase might take down some of the stocks that have been extremely profitable but have large embedded capital gains. >> yes, herb greenberg was talking about exactly that. >> do you see that given the status quo is what we're presented with this morning on november 7th, are we closer to going over the cliff or do we get a compromise? >> i really don't think you're going to get a compromise. i think that's awfully optimistic. here we have an election result which basically keeps the contentious aspects of congress still in place. the white house is still in place. i don't know why everyone suddenly thinks that just because obama didn't have as much support this time four years ago, somehow he's going to lose any of his enthusiasm for
12:41 pm
his policies and i really don't think republicans, maybe they underperformed a little bit in the governor race. i don't think they are going to lose any enthusiasm. but i think it's possible that this thing gets punted down the road. what bothers me is some parts of the fiscal cliff will be enacted, like funding for obama care which is a tack increase on wealthy people. a lot of people think if the republicans and democrats just shook hands and smiled at each other they could flip a light switch and make the fiscal cliff go away. it's a cobbling together of quite a few pieces of legislation, some of which like the funding of obama care is not going to be repealed. there will be some impact from tax increases at the end of the year and the last thing that bothers me about all of this, when you survey, there's going to be a compromise or postponement. i agree with that. i think politicians are always at the 11th hour, they find a
12:42 pm
way to punt things. what if they don't punt it. the shock to the markets would be pretty monumental if at 98% of the investors expect no such shock. >> howard dean last night here on cnbc was encouraging the fiscal cliff. he's like, hey, we've got to solve the deficit. do it. let's go over it. how bad would it be for the markets? how bad would it be for the economy? >> i would ask questions like that and say, it kind of depends on your time frame and what you mean by bad. there's short-term bad that has long-term good and short-term bad that has long-term good. and i think you want the answers to be given. is the united states going to cut the government or is it going to pay for the government? this question really has to be answered. the sooner it gets answered -- >> we have to figure it out. >> that's the case with all of these asset purchases and financi financi
12:43 pm
financing schemes in europe. >> josh brown, you have a question? >> i was curious, you raised quite a bit of cash sometime around the midpoint of this year. i think you're close to 18 or 19%. what are the things you're looking for or the sign posts that would tell you, hey, this is what we've been looking for, let's allocate a bit more to whatever you think is priced appropriately? is activity like this or not necessarily? >> i'm really looking for higher volatility in the market as a general theme and volatility is what investors really hope for when they are positioned in cash. i did have as high as a 24% position and some things got shook up in the springtime and took it down to 15%. you have to remember, the bond market itself has huge pockets of it that yield zero, like
12:44 pm
two-year treasuries, three-year treasuries that cash doesn't have much of an opportunity cost and the market, when one invests in a broad fund, if you're doing an index type of fund, you're doing a lot of those securities that yield nothing. i have to make the decision every single morning i get confronted with this on my risk report, you're sitting on 15% cash, do you really want to do that? i like that rather than having like a one-year or two-year treasury. but i really think that we are going to see some pretty significant volatility that enters the market as we deal with this uncertainty and about the fiscal cliff and administration and what they are going to do with tax increases on rich people and also potentially dividends and capital gains. >> jeff, thanks so much for joining us. kudos on the apple call. >> thanks very much. i hope to join you again sometime soon. >> yes, in the studio at some
12:45 pm
point. we'll show you once again what is going on with greece. more ridioting in the streets. this is the backside of the parliament square. once again, there's an austerity vote today in greece. in other words, the parliament has to pass a budget that includes deep, deep cuts. that's why the people are in the streets. they are angry about yet even more cuts. we've seen this movie many times before. add this to the list of worries of europe. we'll also talk about the big leadership change in china that's coming up which could also be problematic for the markets. see you on the other side of the square. axiron, the only underarm treatment for low t, can restore testosterone levels back to normal in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18. axiron can transfer to others through direct contact. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant, and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur.
12:46 pm
report these signs and symptoms to your doctor if they occur. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. do not use if you have prostate or breast cancer. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prostate symptoms; decreased sperm count; ankle, feet, or body swelling; enlarged or painful breasts; problems breathing while sleeping; and blood clots in the legs. common side effects include skin redness or irritation where applied, increased red blood cell count, headache, diarrhea, vomiting, and increase in psa. see your doctor, and for a 30-day free trial, go to axiron.com.
12:47 pm
when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. well, if itmr. margin?margin. don't be modest, bob. you found a better way to pack a bowling ball. that was ups. and who called ups? you did, bob. i just asked a question. it takes a long time to pack a bowling ball. the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob.
12:48 pm
i know. today on power lunch, 293. that's the number. we will show you who is getting hit the hardest. the one sector that is hanging in and where you might find a safe haven. attention now, of course, turning towards the fiscal cliff and we'll speak with three lawmakers who now need to rise above partisan politics. and the latest on that storm that is hitting the east coast. it's snowing. we'll see you on "power." "fast half" continues in two. i have a cold, and i took nyquil,
12:49 pm
but i'm still stubbed up. [ male announcer ] truth is, nyquil doesn't unstuff your nose. what? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus liquid gels speeds relief to your worst cold symptoms plus has a decongestant for your stuffy nose. thanks. that's the cold truth!
12:50 pm
12:51 pm
welcome back to "fast money." looking at some defense stocks, personal defense as in guns, once again with president obama being re-elected we're seeing the handgun stocks move higher with the thought that perhaps the president will move towards tougher gun control laws. although he has avoided even talking about it during the campaign. take a look at defense. the defense sector. those stocks today getting hit hard. they're off the lows, we're off nearly 4% at one point today and the concern of course is if they can't reach some sort of deal, the fiscal cliff will hit the defense sector hard. >> billions and billions of spending being cut there. downtown josh brown, gun stocks have been on a tremendous run already.
12:52 pm
do you buy more here? what do you do? >> you look at smith & wesson, let's say. it is right up against this down trend that i guess started in the middle of this year. the problem with the stock, truthfully, they're not going to grow earnings between 2013 and 2014, at least not according to the analysts that follow it. if it earned 88 cents, do you want to may more than 11 times earning for zero growth? that's the issue with getting really excited about it. that being said, if you are a trader and you see this thing snap 1050, that's a break above the down trend and you might grab a couple of points there. >> we had the ceo on the 5:00 p.m. show a while back, told a very fundamentally strong story. i think -- basically 100% up side given on smith & wesson. i still think the up side is intact. >> the defense stocks, a lot of folks have said they didn't like defense stocks because
12:53 pm
regardless of what happens, defense spending has to go down. what do you feel about the defense stocks? >> i don't like this sector one bit. i think the only argument there is that it offers a good yield at a cheap valuation. health care you can get that same argument without the downside. spending cuts are inevitably going to get hit. >> the dow off 292 points. declines of more than 2% across the board. dow below 13,000, nasdaq below 3,000. we have been talking -- there's the 10-year yield. dropping today. you'll all be slohocked to hear. 1.62%. president obama is good for the bond market. talk offing about the fiscal cliff today and how it will affect your portfolio.
12:54 pm
joining us now, ed mills, financial policy analyst at fbr financial capital markets. you have a note out that says the result of the election says the falling off the fiscal cliff is more likely. why and how bad can it be? >> well, yeah. i think we actually might be at a point where we have to bungee jump the cliff where we have to go off before republicans can get the vote to lower taxes. the real problem here is that with the adding of two senate seats in the senate for democrats, and obama being re-elected, they can't take a deal unless they get that top rate to go up. republicans in the house are going to have a lot of pressure from their base to hold the line. in the number one thing i'm looking at there is for john boehner, he does not get re-elected as speaker until january. so during these negotiations, he always has to have an eye on that speaker election and if he cuts out his base, he might be in trouble. >> because all -- all
12:55 pm
politicians pray to the god of re-election. so what do you do in the meantime? >> i think that what you're going to see here is any of the risk-on names are going to take it on the chin. i think there's probably going to be -- >> until january? >> yeah. i think that the kind of -- what i have gone around -- i have marketed. i think there is an underappreciation for the volatility that's still to come with this. i think there is a huge belief out there that they are going to come to a conclusion, that there will be a certain level of soul searching and that it is so bad they must do something. i'm just not as certain. >> thank you so much, ed. we got do get back over to bertha coombs with more market city of. >> back on defense stocks. boeing announcing a major restructuring of its defense division. says it is going to cut 30% of management jobs from 2010 levels. close facilities in california and consolidate several business units in order to cut costs. >> allrightee. thank you so much, bertha.
12:56 pm
final trades next all on the halftime report. in america today we're running out of a vital resource we need to compete on the global stage. what we need are people prepared for the careers of our new economy. by 2025 we could have 20 million jobs without enough college graduates to fill them.
12:57 pm
that's why at devry university, we're teaming up with companies like cisco to help make sure everyone's ready with the know how we need for a new tomorrow. [ male announcer ] make sure america's ready. make sure you're ready. at devry.edu/knowhow. ♪ at devry.edu/knowhow. music is a universal language. but when i was in an accident... i was worried the health care system spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where i'm from. and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never missed a beat. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare.
12:58 pm
12:59 pm
here's how dow component boeing is trading at this hour, moving higher on the news they are doing major restructuring of its defense business. moving higher off the lows. certainly not in positive territory as we see this sell-off. you have to wonder about the timing of this announcement, were they waiting to see the outcome of the election before they announced it was restructuring in the defense sector. we'll have more on that in "power lunch." don't move. but first, final trades. pete najarian? >> with the expansion of the stores and product line, starbucks still works. >> i'm going to say short boeing. i think restructuring means we just have really bad sales going forward. >> trim your low conviction positions, stuff you don't love, get rid of now. >> trim your low convictions. >> he took my final trade. it was going to be i am l

68 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on